Based on the most recent Bloomberg | Truckstop survey, which gathered insights from owner-operators and small fleets, the majority of participants feel that the current level of demand has hit its lowest point.

“The worst may be near for the North American truckload spot market,” said Lee Klaskow, senior freight transportation and logistics analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence.  “Capacity could drop as rates hover near or below operating costs, which is crucial for the spot market to reach equilibrium.”

The findings from the Bloomberg | Truckstop 4Q23 Truckload Survey indicate:

  • Demand challenges may have bottomed out: During the fourth quarter of 2023, demand continued to face pressure, with 68% of respondents noting decreased volume and 23% reporting stagnant load levels. A significant portion of participants seem to believe that current demand has hit its lowest point, with 40% predicting no change in volume over the next three to six months—an increase of 10 percentage points compared to the third quarter’s survey.
  • Carriers remain cautious about purchasing additional tractors: Only 14% expressed potential interest in buying new equipment over the next six months. Weak demand was cited as the primary reason for 44% of respondents not considering equipment purchases.
  • Spot rates may have reached a plateau: Many carriers believe that spot rates, excluding fuel surcharges, are currently at or near their lowest point, with an average drop of 14% for respondents in the fourth quarter. Approximately 46% anticipate rates to remain flat over the next 3-6 months, while 32% expect further declines and 22% foresee improvement.
  • Carriers maintain their resolve despite challenges: Load volumes decreased by an average of 13% in the fourth quarter due to economic softness and tough comparisons. This situation has led to uncertainty among many owner-operators, with 43% uncertain about their status in six months and 12% considering leaving the industry altogether.

“We share the sentiments of our customers and hold an optimistic outlook that spot market conditions will improve this year,” said Kendra Tucker, chief executive officer, Truckstop.

The Bloomberg | Truckstop survey focused on owner-operators and small fleets, offering valuable insights into the spot market’s condition. The survey included 148 participants, encompassing various types of carriers such as dry-van, flatbed, temperature-controlled, specialized/diversified, hot-shot, and step-deck carriers. Among the respondents, 52% operate with only one tractor.