The truck transportation industry in the U.S. experienced two consecutive months of job declines in June and July, something that hadn’t happened since the start of the pandemic. These declines were significant as they happened only six times in total, with three of them occurring in the past six months, and two of them were back-to-back in the latest report.

In July, there were 1,604,300 truck transportation jobs on a seasonally adjusted basis, which was a decrease of 2,900 jobs compared to the revised June figure of 1,607,200 jobs. The June figure was revised downward by 2,500 jobs and was 2,000 jobs lower than the revised May figure.

As a result, the truck transportation sector reported 4,900 fewer jobs in July compared to May, making it the lowest level of employment in 2023 and lower than any month since October 2022.

Interestingly, while seasonally adjusted figures declined, not seasonally adjusted jobs in the truck transportation sector increased by 2,200 jobs from the revised June figure. However, the downward revision in June didn’t significantly affect the overall increase between May and June.

David Spencer, the vice president of market intelligence at Arrive Logistics, highlighted that the total employment decline since September 2022 indicates challenging conditions for carriers. He expects this trend to continue since lower rates are squeezing carrier profit margins, and he doesn’t foresee any quick reversal of the situation.

Spencer also pointed out that the actual decline in employment might be larger than the figures suggest since owner-operators leaving the industry might not be included in this data.

Other key points from the survey:

  • Given that the survey is conducted by the BLS in the first part of the month, a mass exodus from Yellow would not have been recorded in July. One note: Yellow management who lost their jobs would fall under the classification of “management of companies and enterprises,” so would not be in the truck transportation data next month, when the impact of Yellow’s closure would be expected to start hitting the numbers.
  • Hourly earnings for production and nonsupervisory workers in the truck transportation sector were down 40 cents an hour, to $29.02. That figure is for June; the data is on a one-month lag. It’s only the sixth time since the start of the pandemic that the pay level declined.
  • Warehouse jobs continued their long decline. They were down to 1,899,500 jobs, a drop of 5,600 jobs from June. Warehouse jobs on a seasonally adjusted basis were 1,960,300 jobs in June 2022, which was the peak figure. Warehouse jobs were 1,933,200 jobs in January. The respective declines since then were 60,800 jobs since June 2022 and 33,700 jobs since January.
  • Rail jobs rose 200 jobs to 150,400 jobs. For an industry under pressure to add head count, it does mark the fourth consecutive month above 150,000 jobs, a level it had not been at since before the pandemic. But it would still need to add 4,400 jobs to get to the level of April 2020, just when the pandemic hit. And to get back to July 2019 numbers, it would need to add 25,400 jobs.