In November, there was a decrease in truck tonnage, indicating a prolonged freight recession in the industry. However, the American Trucking Associations reported that conditions are expected to improve as we move into the next year, according to the latest For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index for the month.
“We continued to see a choppy 2023 for truck tonnage into November,” ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello said in the Dec. 19 release.
The index experienced a 1.2% decline, dropping from 114.7 in November 2022 to 113.7. When compared on a sequential basis, there was a 1% decrease from 114.9 in October.
“It seems like every time freight improves, it takes a step back the following month,” Costello said. “While year-over-year comparisons are improving, unfortunately, the freight market remains in a recession. Looking ahead, with retail inventories falling, we should see less of a headwind for retail freight, but I’m also not expecting a surge in freight levels in the coming months.”
November’s figure represents the ninth consecutive year-over-year decline in the index. In October, the index was 2.4% lower than the same period in the previous year. The index is calculated with 100 as the baseline for the year 2015. It’s noteworthy that the For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index by the American Trucking Associations is primarily influenced by contract freight rather than spot market freight.
Contrastingly, the National Retail Federation, in a report on December 14, expressed optimism about the holiday shopping season, forecasting a 3% to 4% increase compared to 2022. The total spending during this season is anticipated to set a new record, ranging between $957.3 billion and $966.6 billion.
