Two recent evaluations of the state of the trucking industry in the United States lack significantly positive outcomes.

According to the economic analysis released by Motive (previously named KeepTruckin) for August, it foresees the ongoing decline in freight movement to persist throughout the remainder of this year.

Motive’s study indicates that the downturn in freight movement is shifting to impact higher-end markets, resulting in a decrease in trucking employment. Following a better-than-anticipated performance during the July 4th holiday, consumer demand in the retail sector has now adjusted downwards.

It also found:

  • The data for July revealed ongoing drops in the number of U.S. carriers, but with a notable distinction: there was a 5% decrease in small fleets of five vehicles or fewer exiting the industry. This indicates that a larger proportion of exits came from mid-sized to larger fleets compared to what we have observed in 2023.
  • It anticipates the present rate of contraction to persist, potentially leading to further unemployment among truck drivers.
  • Following the July 4th period, the trend in retail demand reversed course, revealing a 15% decrease in comparison to the same time last year.
  • The freight downturn could be attributed to a reversion from the artificially elevated demand levels during the pandemic, given that the growth in e-commerce has now realigned with the 10-year averages preceding the pandemic.

Motive suggests that both the trucking industry and the broader freight market are currently undergoing a “detox” phase. This pertains to a period where the excessive consumer demand experienced during the pandemic resulted in artificially inflated gross margins and expansion. Despite some assertions of a potential economic improvement, Motive forecasts that this subdued demand and the consequent freight downturn will persist until at least the conclusion of this year.

The Bloomberg|Truckstop Truckload Survey 

The situation has reached a crucial juncture for truckers engaged in the spot market, as carriers express their dissatisfaction with diminishing rates and escalating expenses. This sentiment is reflected in the most recent Bloomberg | Truckstop survey, which gathered input from owner-operators and small fleets.

“We remain optimistic that rates are near a bottom and poised to rise with a return to more normal seasonal trends and inventories,” said Lee Klaskow, senior freight transportation and logistics analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. “Uncertainty about when rates will recover is making it increasingly more challenging for truckers to operate as independent carriers in the face of lower demand.”

The survey shows: 

  • The prospects for trucking demand within the spot market have taken a notably negative shift, leading to uncertainty about the direction that depressed spot rates will take moving forward. The combination of a sluggish environment and escalating costs might compel additional owner-operators to step aside due to elusive profits. Interestingly, this could potentially serve as a catalyst for driving rates higher.
  • Opinions among carriers regarding the future direction of spot rates, excluding fuel surcharges, are largely divided subsequent to the notable 19% decline observed in the second quarter. According to the Truckstop survey, approximately 39% of respondents anticipate an increase in spot rates over the next three to six months, while 24% predict a decrease—a 3 percentage point reduction from the preceding three months. Notably, carriers have become somewhat less pessimistic about rates compared to their outlook in the third quarter of the previous year, when 38% had projected a decline.
  • The trucking industry is witnessing a growing departure of experienced truck drivers. Carriers experienced subdued spot demand during the second quarter, as reported by 55% of respondents who observed a decrease in loads compared to the previous year. This figure is approximately 7 percentage points higher than the findings from three months prior. Notably, around 10% of individuals surveyed plan to exit the industry within the next six months—twice the number reported in the first quarter.