The recent report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that the number of truck transportation jobs had its ups and downs.

In June, there was a decrease of 200 jobs in the truck transportation sector compared to May. This brings the total number of jobs to 1,609,700 on a seasonally adjusted basis, as reported by the BLS. However, this decrease follows an increase of 700 jobs in May, which was revised from the initial employment report. Additionally, April jobs were revised upward by 100 jobs.

In summary, the latest June figure shows an increase of 1,000 jobs compared to the revised April figure. Nevertheless, it is still lower than the number of jobs recorded in the first month of the year.

David Spencer, the vice president of market intelligence at Arrive Logistics, noted the stability of the market and he said:

“Summer peak shipping season (typically associated with an increase in seasonal produce shipments) likely contributed to a relatively stable job environment in the truck transportation sector in June,” Spencer said. “Down about 200 jobs, the first decline since February, still leaves total employment in the sector higher than any point in 2022, but down nearly 2,000 jobs from January 2023.”

Spencer was not optimistic going forward. “As demand eases post-Independence Day, the expectation is that trucking conditions should revert to conditions seen earlier in Q2,” he said. “This means a falling rate environment, and an expectation that worsening trucking conditions could lead to further job declines, on a seasonally adjusted basis.”

One of the most surprising statistics in the report released on Friday was the number of not seasonally adjusted truck transportation jobs. While economists typically focus on seasonally adjusted data for employment and other economic indicators, they caution against disregarding the not seasonally adjusted figures.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the not seasonally adjusted truck transportation jobs increased by over 14,000 between May and June. The total number of jobs climbed from 1,605,700 to 1,619,900. Compared to the adjusted figure in April, there is an increase of more than 28,000 jobs in the truck transportation sector on a not seasonally adjusted basis. This significant surge in the not seasonally adjusted figure raises concerns about the potential inflation of the seasonally adjusted number, especially when considering the weak trucking market. It also suggests that the seasonally adjusted figure may be subject to revision in the following month since it relies partly on adjustments from the not seasonally adjusted data.

Matt Muenster, the chief economist at Breakthrough, delved into the one-month delayed figures for specific employment levels in less-than-truckload (LTL) and truckload sectors. He observed that the data reveals year-over-year declines in long-distance LTL trucking jobs, while long-distance truckload employment has increased compared to the previous year.

“This would suggest that trucking capacity is largely being maintained, but there is some variability in capacity conditions across different segments,” Muenster said in an email to FreightWaves.

In other highlights of the monthly report:

  • Warehousing jobs took another hit. Warehousing and storage came in at 1,904,700 jobs, down from 1,911,600 jobs. With the downward trend in warehousing jobs that has stretched now for several months, the June figure on warehouse jobs is now down 55,600 jobs in the past year. 
  • Even though employment levels in truck transportation have held steady, the overall trend in hours worked has been down. Average weekly hours worked in the truck transportation sector for all employees peaked at 42.7 in May 2021 and remained above 42 hours for the next five months. The figure was more than 41 hours for six months last year. But the number of hours worked in the truck transportation sector dropped to 39.9 in February and has only slightly rebounded. It was 40.2 in April and dropped again in May to 40.1. That figure lags the general employment report by a month. 
  • Rail employment, which had  been trending higher and last month crossed the 150,000 worker mark for the first time since the pandemic, retreated slightly, down 200 jobs to 150,100 jobs.

Source: www.freightwaves.com