The Bureau of Labor Statistics revised its model and saw an increase in the truck-related workforce and a significant change in the number of workers in warehouses.

The January employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which was released in February, is significant not just because it shows the change in employment numbers from December, but also because of the annual revisions to the model, which can result in significant changes in employment estimates in certain sectors. This was seen in the recent release, with truck transportation and warehousing sectors experiencing big swings in employment estimates.

According to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the truck transportation sector had a higher employment rate than previously reported on a seasonally adjusted basis for most of 2022, with the number continuing to rise in January. The latest figures from the BLS for 2022 show significant differences from its previous report on employment levels, for example the BLS now reports 1,557,400 jobs in the truck transportation sector in January 2022, compared to its “final” report which showed 1,545,700 jobs in January before the annual revisions. The first three reports of a month’s employment level are considered preliminary, with the third report being considered final until annual revisions.

The annual revisions by the BLS resulted in an increase in employment figures for every month of 2022, except for a decrease of 800 jobs in May. The revisions were substantial, with January showing an increase of 11,700 jobs, February being 8,200 jobs higher than initially reported, and March showing a 7,800-job increase. Even in the last quarter of the year, which was reportedly a slow period for trucking, the employment figures still showed increases of 6,600, 6,100, and 9,100 jobs.

The final outcome is that the employment rate in the truck transportation sector in January 2023 was 1,614,700 jobs on a seasonally adjusted basis, which is 3.6% higher than the revised figure for January 2022. Before the latest release by the BLS, the estimated number of jobs in the sector for January 2022 was 1,545,700, which was a combination of the revision and the growth rate from January to January.

The number of jobs in the warehouse sector was revised significantly upward for the second year in a row. The December 2022 figure is now 1,937,100 jobs, which is 211,900 jobs more than the previous report. Although there were several months during the year when the number of warehouse jobs was reported to have decreased from the previous month, the revisions were so significant that every revised figure was higher than the original report, even after the sequential declines.

Among other highlights in the latest report:

  • The number of jobs in the rail sector has increased due to both revisions and job growth. The January figure of 149,400 jobs was the highest since before the pandemic. In April 2020, rail reported 154,800 jobs, but there were pandemic-related layoffs, leading to a steady range of 145,000 jobs since mid-2020. The December figure was also revised upward to 148,900 jobs, indicating that railroads, facing pressure to increase their workforce, may be responding to the demand.
  • The average hourly pay for truck transportation production and nonsupervisory workers decreased from $28.55 in November to $27.87 in December. This was the first time since August that the average hourly pay was below $28.
  • The Producer Price Index for truck transportation decreased in December to 193.952, a 1.7% drop from November. It is now 4.8% lower than the recent peak of 203.759 in May.